Take a look at the demographic breakdown (.doc file) for the latest mayoral poll from Insider Advantage. Sure, Mary Norwood has three times as much support as the next candidate (36.5% to Lisa Borders 10.4%), but the poll also shows Norwood with 35% of the black vote to Borders' 12% and Reed's 5%. 43% of the entire electorate is still undecided. There is simply no way these numbers stay this way, and I would be surprised if Norwood really got 1/3 of the black vote when there are two high-quality black candidates with ties to the civil rights movement and/or the current administration in the race.
I wouldn't put much stock in this polling data until the campaign has really started and ads have started to air. In some ways, I wonder if this isn't a ceiling for Norwood, as I believe the more folks learn about her the less interested they will become. This isn't a candidate with a lot of depth, y'know. Reed and Borders have much heftier resumes and (for Borders at least) a much more compelling personal story. They also both exude an intellectual capacity I haven't seen in Norwood. Now, I'm not saying Mary Norwood is stupid, or anything. Far from it. I just haven't seen indications of intellectual curiosity in her actions. But hey, I've been wrong before.
h/t: Political Insider