Wednesday, April 1, 2009

This is more like it

I have in the past complained about the choices for the Democratic gubernatorial race. It looks like the heavy-weights see an opening, however. First, Roy Barnes seems to be all but in the race, and now Thurbert Baker is jumping in. If Barnes does end up entering, the combination effectively kills DuBose Porter's chances, in my opinion. DuBose has been an ineffective leader in the state house, and I never thought he had a real shot, anyway.

My guess - Baker won't do well among the in-town liberal crowd, but will clean up in rural parts of the state and in majority black areas like DeKalb county. The in-town crowd always underestimates how conservative many black communities are, and thus the Democratic primary. I think Mark Taylor's margin in 2006 surprised some people, even if Cathy Cox imploded - he ran as a fairly moderate to conservative Democrat, and did pretty well.

Even if Barnes gets in, I think Baker has the best shot at the nomination. His race aside, he always struck me as pretty shrewd politically and seemed pretty content as AG. I don't think he'd make the move without some very strong polling. He has a gravitas most Georgia Dems lack (see: DuBose Porter), which will help. A lot of folks also forget he has a pretty serious legislative record, too. He (along with Mark Taylor) was a co-sponsor on much of Zell Miller's legislative agenda, including the HOPE scholarship and the Two-Strikes-and-You're-Out laws.

I am not sure how the Genarlow Wilson thing will affect Baker's chances, however. I know he has ticked off the liberal crowd by not really standing up for a lot of things, but the Genarlow Wilson incident had much broader support. Maybe he is hoping that Eric Johnson took most of the heat on that?

BTW, I'll be ticked if this is an April Fool's Joke, if for no other reason than I spent the time to write this post.

2 comments:

  1. Barnes will likely beat him if he gets in, but Thurbert probably talked to Roy before deciding. Most of Thurbert's campaign people were Roy's before that, they wouldn't run against him. If Roy does get in, it will be interesting to see what DiSantis does.

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  2. What, no love for Gen. Poythress (my candidate)?

    Harumph, I say. Harumph.

    WF

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